Current USD/JPY Multiple Time Frame Analysis

The week started out with an opening gap up, that retraced and filled the gap, followed by a short-term rally of 4-8 hours and then a slow then sudden reversal for the next approximately 12 hours or so.

With the 4H chart underneath the MACD average & signal line forming slope, it would normally mean that the trend could continue to the downside, but that's only if the higher time frame charts like the Daily and Weekly are giving it permission / in agreement with that theory. 

Considering that the Daily and Weekly chart are above the MACD average & signal line, I'm now assuming that the market has some sort of support and is going to bounce through out the neutral zone before continuing the trend to the downside. However, I must keep in mind that we've been in a strong uptrend on this pair for a couple of years now. It could very well continue to trend for another year or two more. 

To confirm the direction, when looking at the Monthly chart stochastics & MACD, it does appear to be underneath the MACD signal and average line forming a downward slope while putting in some form of bottom. 

If the MACD and stochastics indicator start going sideways, chopping through the center of the MACD average and MACD slope, the market will go sideways on that chart. I would consider this support. 

On a higher timeframe, the Daily and Weekly, you could see it play out on the Daily chart and Weekly chart, you could see it rally to the Daily chart downward sloping trendline or to the 161.8 Fibonacci retracement at the 100 period MA before continuing its downward trend. 

That's not currently happening but it could play out that way if the market does indeed decide to continue trending down for longer. From this support it could bounce up to retest previous resistance in the gap zone and then begin to fall from there. 

Being that the Monthly chart stochastics is still underneath the MACD average & slope line, this is a strong possibility, but it will likely play out on a longer time frame meaning it would take longer for these moves to go sideways and trend a little up, then sideways and trend a little up, then sideways and trend a little more up, which is where some traders could get caught, before one final sideways and then the reverse. 

So be careful out there, this is the first week of the new quarter. Have you looked at the longer-term perspective of the market to see what it's likely to do over the next 3 months? 

It could help your trading a lot. 




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